RWC Qualifiers...It's all fun and games until you face Canada....

I’m really torn about this week’s blog.  I spent a lot of time with the Eagles photographing practice and pre/post game.  No one can deny they play with some serious heart.  But it’s just not translating into wins.  Everyone and their uncle has or will be breaking down the game.  So I'm choosing to channel my inner psychic.  Let’s take a look forward and see how possibly the Rugby Gods did the USA Eagles a favor….?

Our road to the 2015 RWC was never going to be easy.  But, a 27-9 loss against Canada last week causes problems.  This gives them a wicked 18 point advantage going into the match on Saturday Aug 24^th in Toronto.  So to take our easiest road (Road 1), we now not only need to win, but win by at least 19 points.  And let’s be honest it means we have a lot of work to do this week.  But do we really want to beat Canada on Saturday?  Should we be so hell bent on hanging our hopes and prayers on beating the spread?  I argue that making it into the RWC by beating Canada may NOT be the best place for the Eagles.  Pool B gives us our best chance and we have a clear shot at it.  Now before you throw tomatoes at me, hear my argument.  Let’s break it down.

Don't look at me like that Todd - I have a valid theory....

Where the roads lead….

 Alright, we’ve got the 3 possibilities laid out before us.

Road 1 – Pool D as Americas 1 (France/Ireland/Italy/Europe 2)  

We beat Canada by more than 18 points Saturday and we’re into pool D – YAY!  Wait, yay?   France is gonna go forward no question, which leaves the Eagles to get past Ireland and Italy.  Now you can argue with me all you want that USA would be hard pressed to beat Ireland or Italy, but dammit-I photographed both those matches and I think we could.  Except, we have to remember the top Irish players were with the Lions this summer, so while I could see us sneak by Italy, Ireland will be formidable.   I think we would stand a solid shot at it.  Chances of going to QFs – questionable (50/50)

Road 2 – Pool B as Americas 2 (Springboks/Samoa/Scotland/Asia 1) 

We lose Saturday-BOO, so we face Uruguay-which we will win and then be in Pool B – Yay?  Hell yeah YAY!  We know the Boks will be QFinalist.   With Samoa and Scotland, we face some pretty tough roads.  Samoa is becoming a POWERHOUSE in rugby.  Beating them won’t be easy.  But they will take a pounding from the Springboks and if we play them later, could be a team we can beat.  Scotland can be pretty schizophrenic and with so many recent changes, they are just this year beginning a rebuild.  That leaves a large question mark as well.  Chances of going to QFs – (65/35)

Road 3 – Pool A as Repechage  (Aussies/England/Wales/Oceania Playoff winner) 

We lose Saturday to Canada-Boo, we some how lose to Uruguay-Ugh, so we play through the Repechage.  Ok so in terms of getting to the RWC it’s a boom boom boom win win win and we go.  But and this is a seriously Kim Kardashian size BUT—we end up in the pool of doom.  Aussies. England. Wales. Oh my!  It’s a no brainer that either Aussies or England will go through with Wales.  And we’re gonna take a beating no matter what.  Chances of going to QFs – don’t make me type it.

So there you have it.  Boo Hoo that Canada defeats us all you want.  I give it no nevermind.  We want Americas 2.  Let Ireland deal with Canada.   Besides the runner up in Pool D will in all likelihood face NZL in the QF!  So HA!  Ha ha? Wait.  I could photography USA Eagles v All Blacks? Dammit! Let's beat CANADA!!!!  Go Eagles!

Could I take a moment and recommend starting Cam Dolan? Or at least put him in sooner?